Forums › Life › Politics, Media & Current Events › "hottest thinker in the world" loves parties! it’s all about the Black Swan…
sometimes u buy a book, and u get lucky… i bought a book along the lines of Freakonomics, an interesting look at the new lines of thinking opening up in the world of economics.
But cos it was a ‘bogohp’ i bought another interestin book called ‘The Black Swan’ by Nassim Nicholas Taleb… and it turned out to be a far more interesting read.
after months of battlin thru the challenging material, a combination of probability and philosophy, and findin some really fascinating ideas, i finally finished the book last week. :weee:
This mornin i looked 2 see wot the rest of the world made of this frighteningly relevent (think global credit crisis!) attack on the lazy use of statistical theories… and it turns out the guy is ‘the hottest thinker in the world’, according to some, and his book is a bestseller! how good is that… :love:
i’m not saying that he has everythin right, but he sure has made an impact. I’d be interested to see wot other people think…
Perhaps the best thing in it for PV’ers is that the man loves parties, it is one of his top tips. go to parties, and if u cant go… send a friend! :laugh_at:
Taleb is good mates with some bloke called Mandelbrot, apparently, a name some of you might be familiar with… 😉
here’s a nice profile…
Nassim Nicholas Taleb: the prophet of boom and doom – Times Online
here is his recent essay on the global credit crunch
http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/taleb08/taleb08_index.html
here is his homepage
http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/
wiki on the book
The Black Swan (book – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia)
and wiki on the theory
lots of info there,
am looking forwards to it in the post,
no rush though – got 6 books lined up already 😉
I picked that freakonomics book up a while ago and had a good look but didnt buy it. I have however just finished reading ‘the corporation’, by joel bakan. I definately reccomend as it doesnt sinmply bash on about how bad corporations and government are like a million and one other books do. But it logically looks at the historical development of corporate law and where corporate law is now, and how this produces the decisions by corporations which many people (righlty imo) believe not to be in the best interests of society and the environment.
sounds quite dry but its really not when you read it, if anyone wants it pm me and ill post it to you…its only sitting on my floor now and would love a good home! 😉
sounds quite dry but its really not when you read it, if anyone wants it pm me and ill post it to you…its only sitting on my floor now and would love a good home! 😉
sounds a bit like the black swan, not an easy read, but not half as tough, or dry, as u might think…
black swan is probly the only book i have ever read that addresses philosophy in any meaningful way, which shows the limits of my knowledge, but the unique thing is to watch the worlds banking system teeter on the edge of collapse… whilst having read a devastating critique of exactly why it is happening… it comes down to the cognitive biases that every human displays, in a confusing and contradictory world.
human nature means we struggle to give weight to wot we don’t know, and we tend to over-emphasis the importance of wot we do know. Added to a strong desire for narrative (ie coherent stories), which we remember so much better than unconnected facts, it adds up to a weakness we would all do well to keep in mind.
An object lesson in humility really, and a great advert for the simple statement (in economics/social science etc), ‘i don’t know’… i’ll try and use it more often in future! 😉
To cut to the chase, here are Talebs top tips, from the appleyard profile…
1 Scepticism is effortful and costly. It is better to be sceptical about matters of large consequences, and be imperfect, foolish and human in the small and the aesthetic.
2 Go to parties. You can’t even start to know what you may find on the envelope of serendipity. If you suffer from agoraphobia, send colleagues.
3 It’s not a good idea to take a forecast from someone wearing a tie. If possible, tease people who take themselves and their knowledge too seriously.
4 Wear your best for your execution and stand dignified. Your last recourse against randomness is how you act — if you can’t control outcomes, you can control the elegance of your behaviour. You will always have the last word.
5 Don’t disturb complicated systems that have been around for a very long time. We don’t understand their logic. Don’t pollute the planet. Leave it the way we found it, regardless of scientific ‘evidence’.
6 Learn to fail with pride — and do so fast and cleanly. Maximise trial and error — by mastering the error part.
7 Avoid losers. If you hear someone use the words ‘impossible’, ‘never’, ‘too difficult’ too often, drop him or her from your social network. Never take ‘no’ for an answer (conversely, take most ‘yeses’ as ‘most probably’).
8 Don’t read newspapers for the news (just for the gossip and, of course, profiles of authors). The best filter to know if the news matters is if you hear it in cafes, restaurants… or (again) parties.
9 Hard work will get you a professorship or a BMW. You need both work and luck for a Booker, a Nobel or a private jet.
10 Answer e-mails from junior people before more senior ones. Junior people have further to go and tend to remember who slighted them.
I’ve certainly mastered this one on more than a few occasions :laugh_at:
I especially agree with the ‘i dont know’ statement, and use this often as it saves so much time in the long run, accompanied with ‘I’ll try and find out for you’, in my own experience pretending or lieing or just inventing answers can really really cause a lot of shit,
esp when dealing with people and its caused a hell of a lot of shit in previous jobs when others I’ve worked with havent had the balls to say this…..
yeah, i don’t say it often enuff, but i when i do, i generally say it at the wrong time! :crazy:
the ‘failing with pride’ is a good one, people are often too scared to be seen making mistakes, which i’ve always found to be sign of weakness.
the best people i’ve ever worked with (olivier winning sound and lighting people) were never afraid of getting it wrong, indeed mistakes are a fundamental part of creative processes, and are to be expected, if not entirely welcomed! 😉
And often the main way in which we learn
i like ‘never trust a man wearing a tie’, altho i normally say ‘… wearing a suit’!
i’ve been sayin that for donkeys years, and now i have quality back up for it… :weee:
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Forums › Life › Politics, Media & Current Events › "hottest thinker in the world" loves parties! it’s all about the Black Swan…