Forums › Life › Environment › UK : what do you think will happen as we approach "peak oil?"
been wondering about this for a few years now..
its clear that oil supplies are now dwindling and being jealously fought over worldwide.. and no matter who “wins” the Iraq war prices may still rise.
In the short term (and maybe as soon as the next 5-10 years) this isn’t going to be doomsday or the end of the world – but I could easily forsee tihngs changing a lot in Britain out of sheer necessity
perhaps a combination of sheer market forces and perhaps a bit of Govt intervention/control (rationing/road use controls) will start making it harder to use motor vehicles for “luxury” purposes, and a slimming down of how many consumer goods appear on our shelves.
Even if China and the East can still make the goods, they might not export them as much particularly if there is less demand due to austerity – I expect the ships at Felixstowe and Ipswich would start containing essentials such as food and fuels rather than luxuries..
I’m not sure how British society could go.
I would like to think the remnants of the “wartime” spirit would kick in and communities come together ut I fear it may end up becoming a lot more authoritarian, with stuff like potential curfews (to prevent race riots for instance as there will be a lot of blame put on “immigrants”)
There might even be compulsory labour for those who are not currently in work or contributing to society (stuff like cutting down trees at Thetford for construction and fuel, working with the Council to maintain infrastructure etc)
OTOH I feel that (and this may seem surprising) there will be less control on drugs as they will be accepted as a way of “easing the mental pain” – also you may even get more users of recreational substances as they will be tolerated “provided the work gets done”, maybe the use of stimulants might even be encouraged as it was in the last war..
Also those involved in the environmental movements who can actually deliver positive results may finally get some respect and support within society…
What do you all think? Has anyone else considered what the future of this country (or your own if you are outside the UK) will be like?
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alll cars will run on a different type of fuel, they have got this technology now, but if they released it, the economies would go catastrophic
i really hope that society will come together over this one, its interesting just to see in the last couple of years a real change (or so i think) in attitudes towards climate change, i think more members of the public are will to except that concept that global warming is indeed our own fault and that the consequences may be catatstrophic. so i think that society has the potential to realise that oil supplies are a crisis too and all club together to support alternative methods of fuel… i hope that solar paneled house roofs will become a familiar sight.
its little things that annoy me, such as why does soup not come in recyclable tins anymore but all of it in ridiculously thick plastic containers, which at the end of the day need oil to be made.
there are ‘transition towns‘ (mostly in the westcountry) … places that are experimenting with how to live after peak oil
Totnes in Devon one… they have a raft of ideas that they are trying out…
they have their own currency that is accepted in many businesses (after all minting money is done centrally therefore requires transport)
another thing they are doing is recording the memories of older people about how they lived before their was cheap energy available to all. this knowledge could easily be lost soon
check it out
get something going where you live
Whilst ‘peak oil’ is a concern (i’ve seen mention of ‘peak everything!’ gas, coal, etc as a broader issue), it is one of a range of pressing issues connected to our unsustainable use of the earths resources ie climate change, ocean acidification, over-fishing, abuse of water resources, many forms of pollution, soil erosion, destruction of the rainforests etc.
Although many of the ways of addressing peak oil and global warming are the same (mainly energy efficiency and renewables), i am deeply sceptical of our ability to turn this one around, at the current rates of progress.
IMHO it is the warming that will really test us (i think the WHO says its worth about 150,000 deaths/year currently). Sadly, if you pay attention to the current avalanche of evidence confirming the seriousness of the situation, you will notice that we are starting to see effects that were not expected for some time to come, with sea level rise being one particular concern (artic shrinkage, the recent reports of the first real warming in Antartica, melting in Greenland etc).
The latest IPCC report had to fudge the issue, because there is so much uncertainty about how fast the ice caps could collapse. And this is b4 we start to discuss the climate feedbacks, some of which are evidently starting to kick in (ice albedo feedback, melting permafrost emissions, etc)
It is now hard to argue we are going to keep sea level rise below epic proportions. It is currently about 4mm/year (or 6mm/year if you are in the London), but that could easily go through 1cm/year, by around 2040-50. And it will emphatically not stop there, because once those icecaps start to go, there is absolutely no way to put the genie back in the bottle.
And then i could talk about ocean acidification, but if you want the evidence, check out the Royal Society report on the issue.
Anyway, the evidence of the myriad problems is out there. if you need refs, let me know…
Its hard to see it from this close, but i have done a lot of background on this, and we are unquestionably in the middle of a slowly unfolding global catastrophe, unique in human history.:cry:
An interesting and well researched book i read recently, by an enviromental journalist called Mark Lynas, is called ‘Six Degrees: Our future in a warming world’. It was published a couple of months ago, and it paints a bleak picture of the future, but fore-warned is fore-armed.:hopeless:
My plan is to move in with Raj, because Scotland should be lovely (unless the SNP rebuild Hadrians Wall, that is!:groucho: ), and because sea level rise will be mitigated by the uplift in the Scottish landmass (which is still rising as a consequence of the disappearance of the British icecap, after the last ice age).
I’m not suggesting ‘peak oil’ isn’t an issue, clearly it is, i just think its gonna be another nail in millions of coffins.
Actually, thinkin bout it, there probably won’t be many coffins. Historically speakin, it is generally pits…
Sorry if this is depressing, i find that the truth can be refreshing, myself…:group_hug :group_hug :group_hug
I’ll shut up now…
good points, and I also feel that panic from the free markets before it all goes tits up (due to rising energy/oil prices0 will trigger an economic recession thus causing a massive reduction in available “capital” for investment in “renewable energy technology!
This might not be a bad thing though as it will force people to think about available resources rather than the artificial “capital” of the market in stocks and shares..
I will admit though that I am only half-concerned about the future due to my age and my lack of children – if it starts getting bad in 30 years I won’t have long left in life anyway…
But at least I will try to do something positive whilst I am still a bit younger..
I found this site which surprised me being a US source, at least someone out there has some sense..
This might not be a bad thing though as it will force people to think about available resources rather than the artificial “capital” of the market in stocks and shares..
I will admit though that I am only half-concerned about the future due to my age and my lack of children – if it starts getting bad in 30 years I won’t have long left in life anyway…
But at least I will try to do something positive whilst I am still a bit younger..
I found this site which surprised me being a US source, at least someone out there has some sense..
hmm, definately agree with your point about panic. Thats one of the interestin parts of the peak oil thing, the analysis includes an appreciation of the importance of confidence in the future, in the financial markets. The AGW people are strugglin with that, with the Stern report being the only decent work in this area.
I agree that we ought to be investin heavily now, because some things could become alot more expensive, in the near future. We are seeing this now, with the effect of biofuels on food prices.
I’m in the same boat as you vis-a-vis kids. It is probably a lot easier for us to be dispassionate about this. My sister has kids tho…
I try not to be down about it all, as well. When the reality sinks in (5-10 years?) with the general public, we will all have to grow up a bit. It might be like a war, but with the whole world on the same side. Short of finding ET’s, i can’t think of a better way to emphasise our interdependance, our shared responsibilities.
Nice link, i am quite familiar with some of his thinkin! I liked the skills bit (i been thinkin bout that for a while), and also the bit about tribes…
PV tribe anyone? I’m not sure we would make a very effective community, ha ha, depends on the location, i guess. We would need alot of power for the rig. What about a ravers treadmill!:groucho:
Has Raj got a big house?:wink:
PV tribe anyone? I’m not sure we would make a very effective community, ha ha, depends on the location, i guess. We would need alot of power for the rig. What about a ravers treadmill!:groucho:
Has Raj got a big house?:wink:
Sounds a plan! we will all be fit :laugh_at:
8 billion people?
Strictly PVers Raj, natch. That should shave a few off the 8 billion!:love:
Is there anyone further north than u?… that might take some of the pressure off your gaff.:wink:
These are FIVE inevitable fact about loosing oil,
our economy will suffer BIG TIME
America will never change they far out use oil more than the rest of the world
For every 1barrel of oil we find, we are using 3
There is nothing we can do at the moment to stop the extinction of oil
There will be an engine that runs on another source of fuel right now(apart from the ones like solar, gas, and electric) that is already designed, in the 1980s they made a car that ran on water, except the parts rusted.
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Forums › Life › Environment › UK : what do you think will happen as we approach "peak oil?"